Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Thirteenth and Final Part

Phew! Final part. Sapian is part of the Visayas Grid, powered by the combined generation capacities of Tongonan, Kanlaon and Palinpinon geothermal plants. On its own, the Capiz Electric Cooperative (CAPELCO) is solely dependent on bunker fuel. Other power plants in the region are predominantly bunker fuel, fuel oil and coal-fired. National Power Corporation (NAPOCOR) augments shortages around the Visayas islands with bunker fuel-run power plant barge. Bunker fuel is generally used to run factories, and Chinese power plants and factories consume increasing volumes of that fuel distillate. Recently, China has been consuming nearly half a million barrels of bunker fuel everyday, and more than three times more fuel oil. See China’s Petroleum Consumption, by Economic Sector, 2002

As such, CAPELCO competes against China for scarcer bunker fuel. Increased demand for electricity in Sapian was due to expanded electrification. But power is essential to spur growth and development. With electric power, people would enjoy improved quality of life and have access to better opportunities. Families would converge around energized areas to enjoy the amenities of modern technology, like the wider world-view TV offers, and food-preserving refrigerators, and better study hours for students. They could operate capital equipment like rice mills and welding machines, and would have a longer productive day. Senator Juan Flavier once joked in a meeting that electrification also reduces birth rate because people could follow soap operas instead of going to bed early. In short, electric power also empowers people in many ways.

Over 15 years after Poblacion was energized, a large chunk of Sapian, from Crossing Bilao onward to Lonoy and Guibongan did not have electric power. I recall Igsoons Toti and Bodong having to come to Poblacion to charge car batteries to power their TV. I do not know if they are served today, but in any event, a lot of households should be served by now. Energizing that part of Sapian can be traced to Cory Aquino’s visit to Iloilo.

Cory’s regional visits and inspection trips have been the domain of former Cabinet Secretary Jose P. de Jesus (later, DPWH Secretary). But it was turned over to Chito Sobrepena when Malacanang was reorganized under the flamboyant Executive Secretary Oscar Orbos. Government programs and projects are usually developed through long bureaucratic processes, but Cory also wanted to go directly to the people to know about their needs and to address local problems. Secretary de Jesus was designated to coordinate during the early part of the Aquino Administration. At the latter half, Sobreprena was appointed under the Office of Special Concerns. I was part of Sobreprena’s core-group for regional visits. That unit coordinated all presidential visits across OP and line departments. During visits, we collected hundreds of letters and resolutions from local governments and individuals. We make sure that visits run smoothly. One time, I earned the ire of the Bishop of Nueva Caceres in Naga City when I asked what would he say in his prayers at a program the next day.  He snapped, “It’s between me and God!” Advance party had to be quizzical because one priest prayed to God to fix a bridge in a program. Cory was put on the spot and could not respond right away.

Cory’s visit to Iloilo was announced to the media far ahead in advance. But in case they did not hear about it in Sapian, I told the late Uncle Alber Gallardo, Sr., former ABC President. When I called him at Movietone Studio, he said he heard about the visit and had been planning to write a request letter. At that time, he said he was torn between a farm-to-market road in Poblacion and electrification from Bilao to Guibongan. Two weeks later, when we collected his letter during Cory’s dialogue with the local officials in Iloilo, his letter requested Cory for a power connection to Bilao-Lonoy-Guibongan. As a closing statement in that dialogue, Cory promised her very special commitment to all the requests submitted, verbal and written. Hence, in compliance to the President, all letters gathered and oral requests raised at that specific event bore a collatilla, “the President’s very special commitment.”

When request letters have been sorted in Malacanang, Uncle Alber’s request was grouped together with a similar request for Dacoton, Dumarao. Office of the President’s Office Special Concerns Director Nick Torres promptly conveyed this very special commitment of the President in a memorandum to the National Electrification Administration (NEA). NEA, soon thereafter, had informed CAPELCO that a special loan with Land Bank of the Philippines was being offered under the rural electrification program. CAPELCO initially expressed disinterest, stating that the proposed connection would be fiscally infeasible given the density of prospective users and the long stretch of power lines that would be required. Director Torres again issued a memorandum reminding NEA that the very special commitment of the President had to be delivered to the people of Sapian. NEA replied two weeks later that a barge carrying electric posts from Leyte are en route to Roxas City. Uncle Alber Gallardo, as the requestor, and Uncle Nicoy Odrunia, as a Sapian delegate to CAPELCO Board of Directors, have been continuously apprised of the status, as are any requestor for President’s assistance from anywhere else. As FVR said, fire on top and fire at the bottom get things done.

Uncle Alber had been very happy about the completed electrification project. I also heard about the ceremonial switching. I remembered about this project recently when Nang Luz Obligar talked about a power outage during their visit to a church in Lonoy that her daughter, Inday Reynalda Firmalino, helped build. Hopefully, the project had been financially feasible for CAPELCO as it is empowering for the Sapianons it now served.

Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Sixth in a Continuing Series

Another way to revisit the saga of Sapian, China and oil crisis is tracing the thread of Philippine petroleum deregulation. Fidel V. Ramos (FVR) pushed for the enactment of Republic Act 8180, the Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Act of 1996, to promote a more competitive market and prices by allowing the entry of “small” oil players to the market monopolized by the so-called Big Three, namely, Pilipinas Shell Petroleum, Caltex Philippines Inc. and Petron Inc. This involves the removal of the government subsidy to oil prices, called the Oil Price Stabilization Fund, which provided a cushion to oil price increases. In 1999, a new oil deregulation law (RA 8479) was enacted to pave the way for the full deregulation of the oil industry.

During World War II, many countries heavily regulated industries and nationalized critical industries (e.g., petroleum, coal mines, steel mills etc.) to provide maximum support and efficient use of resources for war efforts. After the war, many countries continued or expanded controls on industries to rebuild their war-ravaged economies, and well into the 70s. By the 80s, U.K. Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher - plagued by paralyzing strikes, mismanagement, and bankruptcy - started to privatize government companies. In economic circles, it was called Thatcherism. In the U.S., President Ronald Reagan tried to relax government control on businesses, called Reaganomics. Both trends lean toward Keynesian economics. A very influential 20th Century economist, John Maynard Keynes theorized that government should use its power sparingly at the macro-economic level to regulate (e.g., interest rates, use of reserves etc.) but let the private sector and market forces try to equalize itself. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics

Along these lines U.S. President Bill Clinton, FVR and other leaders promoted a book by David Osborne and Ted Gaebler, entitled, Reinventing Government: How the Entrepreneurial Spirit is Transforming the Public Sector. The authors looked into model governments efficiently run like corporations, with performance-based budget, partnership with the private sector, and people empowerment themes. It called for leveling of the playing field, deregulation, decentralization, devolution, and liberalization, in all aspects of government, politics and the economy. From Washington, to Europe, to Tokyo, a chorus of international organizations told Cory and FVR to pursue these goals. Hence, it was institutionalized in FVR’s Philippines 2000. http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/npr/index.htm

Under this philosophy, started by Cory but staunchly implemented by FVR, the bureaucracy worked double time to deregulate, decentralize, and devolve powers of governance. Among the first tangible result of these is the Local Government Code
- to the perpetual chagrin of my mother and Nono Varon’s parents (it’s a relief they are all in the United States now!) - that included the devolution of the Department of Health’s Rural Health Units (RHUs) to local government units. There were persistent rumors that RHUs will be renationalized, but early on I asked former Health Secretary Juan Flavier (now, Senator) and he told me to tell my mother to change career because it’s not going to happen. In theory, local governments should have more control over their local affairs and would be able to prioritize their policies and fine-tune their programs according to local needs.

Another example is today’s proliferation of cell phones. PLDT monopoly was broken by giving away franchises to any company able to install 5,000 lines, can apply for telephone franchise anywhere in the Philippines. Many leapfrogged with infinite cell lines, so you now have a galaxy of cell service providers. This also was true with Cable TV providers and a host of other telecommunications sub-sectors. Philippine Airlines franchise monopoly was also broken. Now, passengers are no longer at the mercy of PAL. Anyone who has a plane, compliant with all BOT regulations, could apply for an air franchise anywhere in the Philippines. Then you have BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer, Build-Transfer-Operate, Build-Own-Operate etc.) alphabet schemes, which allowed building of dozens of giga-wattage power plants by Hopewell Holdings, Enron, etc. worth billions of dollars. The caveat, contracts for 50 years for guaranteed power purchase by the National Power Corporation. This wiped out the brown outs overnight, particularly when power grids throughout the country have been interconnected. Then, you have your Skyway, North Luzon Expressway, MRT and many others. Under the general theme, base lands, like the Fort Bonifacio area, have been opened to joint ventures with the private sector.

For a moment, the Philippines was referred to as one of the Tiger Cubs of Asia.

Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Eighth in a Continuing Series

First, there were faults in the assumptions. Proponents say downstream deregulation will make the economy stronger and better because it will, as it should, be left upon a free market to operate. Market is said to be a self-equalizing force; that all things being equal, profit interests and buyer interest will synthesize into general welfare.  So the theory goes. But opponents argue that since there is no upstream industry to guarantee a free play of supply and prices for downstream industries, deregulation has no net positive effect because downstream entrepreneurs are still dependent on Big Three for supply. Hence, there is no real competition. Proponents believed that as soon as deregulation is announced, oil companies around the world would race to our doorsteps. But our announcements, repeated announcements, have been met by a stony silence. The reason, some say, is that giant oil companies, with their rules of engagement and protocol, would not go after each other’s throat because, as traditional economics always say, genuine competition lowers prices; and lowered mark-up prices reduces profitability. By and large, they share not only the same security and political concerns, but also the same oil wells, pipelines, refineries, transshipment facilities, tankers, borrow each others’ jets, etc. Early on, critics warned that if there would be no new players the size of the Big Three, deregulation is doomed to fail. And there were none.

Another result of deregulation is the removal of Oil Price Stabilization Fund (OPSF). OPSF is an import levy instituted by Marcos and was approximately P1.25/liter in 1997. It was placed on reserve as safety net to fend ill effects of escalating gas prices. When there was sudden jolt in gas prices to soften impact to consumers, government either totally covered (subsidized) the difference in cost, or spread costs over a period of time (credit). Even at the months before deregulation, OPSF mechanism had been working very hard to stabilize unpredictable gas prices. OPSF was typically used for Forward Cost Cover (FCC) that absorbed for consumers the fluctuating price difference three months in advance. Former Energy Secretary Francisco Viray would always complain to the Cabinet how hard it was for OPSF to keep up with increasing world prices. For over three years, I was the energy “expert” on FVR Cabinet minutes. My supervisor, Director Jess Albar from a prominent Roxas City family, knowing my interests, invariably gave me all Cabinet items on energy, until the Cabinet no longer talked any OPSF or FCC.

On top of deregulation, privatization was another scourge to Philippine petroleum industry. Petron, a government petroleum company, was sold to Aramco. At that point, government had fully abdicated its last measure of influence on domestic oil prices.  Ownership of Petron had been good oil price leverage; profitability had been shoved aside in favor of national welfare. Petron saturated market with lower priced gas to upset upward pressure on gas prices. So, losing Petron ownership and having no OPSF safety net, and none of expected downstream competition, government is now left with the last front-end control. To tax or not to tax.

If we are already selling tax-free oil, and China would pay even more money for even more gas supply, we would be in big trouble. How many of us would be willing to pay P90/liter even if it’s tax-free?

Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Fourth in a Continuing Series

Cory and Ramos Cabinet deliberations on GATT/WTO involved many economic concepts that Ms. Flores laid the foundations for. GATT/WTO was discussed on my first attendance in a Cory Cabinet Meeting, and Jose Concepcion (JoeCon), former Trade and Industry Sectary in Cory Cabinet, owner of Condura, Cosmos Bottling, General Milling, etc., tripped on my right foot and almost crashed on former Defense Secretary Renato De Villa. I was terrified, my first Cabinet and I caused an accident. But people I sat next to assured me that it was not my fault - Lucille Peralta (now Ortille, and Director General of the Cabinet Coordinating Committee on Housing and Urban Planning), also from Roxas City, and Mary Ann Z. Fernandez (now Assistant Commissioner of Civil Service Commission) told me JoeCon was looking up on screen while briskly walking down the hall.  Corridor of power is always cramped, so seats around the Cabinet Meetings are always crowded. Seating was arranged in two rings - the inner circle which is the president and cabinet members, and the outer circle composed of lesser bishops and acolytes like myself. State Dining Room is cold and dark when giant Swarovski chandeliers are dimmed for PowerPoints. Only Imelda’s sconces would light the old rose velvet carpet while people seated on the outer circle would obstruct most steps of the way. Talk about cordon sanitaire.

Anyway, this was not the case in the brightly lit and well-appointed National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) Board Room in Pasig, thanks to Toto “Tayho” Guijaro. The president and Cabinet also convene as Joint Cabinet-NEDA Board a few times a year to update the National Development Plan, and they meet in Pasig once in a while. In NEDA sa Pasig, I always see Toto Tayho because he does the electro-systems for NEDA Board Sub-Committee on Human Resources and NEDA Board/Cabinet that I both attend. I’m sure, Toto Tayho, bombarded by economics everyday, would remember the lectures of Ms. Flores. Our batch was the first to graduate under the nationalized high school. Unfortunately, it was the last batch Ms. Flores would teach. That very next school year, she moved to then Panay State Polytechnic College (PSPC). Lucky them.

Further exploration on China’s economic boom needs us to look into just a little bit of GATT and history. Ms. Flores taught us that Industrial Revolution, which started in Britain between late 1700s and early 1800s, was characterized by increased production due to mechanization (e.g., steam engines - factories and railways). Mechanization allowed mass production that created surplus products. Countries needed to sell surplus products to other countries (dumping). But other countries have the same industries and were creating the same products. So, each country tried to protect its domestic industries, and a period called Protectionist Era ensued. Nations established trade barriers, raised import taxes and tariffs, to make it very difficult to import and export outside of national boundaries. Trade wars ensued - dumping of surpluses to, or raising tariffs against unfriendly nations. Countries like Britain, U.S. and France (Allied) were lucky. Their colonies acted both as exclusive markets for their surpluses and source of cheap raw materials. Other industrializing countries like Japan, Italy and Germany (Axis) did not have colonies. Axis powers had to either have colonies or just fade away. Many summed up World War II as an attempt by Axis powers to re-divide the world and gain colonies for themselves. At that time, China was an agrarian economy trying to survive its own Cultural Revolution.

In 1944, GATT, a trade treaty involving many nations, was established. Its purpose was to facilitate free trade by encouraging member-nations to reduce tariffs and remove trade barriers. This would avoid trade wars and the need to maintain colonies (i.e., the Philippines was then allowed to become independent). Under GATT, each one had a list of sectors, industries or specific products they want to open to international competition. Taxes for those specified sectors or products are either lowered significantly or removed altogether. Since then, GATT worked on the sidelines until the emergence of European Community in the late ’80s. At that time, trade blocs, treaties involving many nations, in many regions of the world started to proliferate. By early 90s, there were APEC, Uruguayan Round, NAFTA, AFTA, BIMP/EAGA and dozens others. Trade blocs reminded some economists of Protectionist Era.

Therefore, GATT had to be reinvented. This time, it would have to include China. The world could not wait to sell 1.3 billion more bottles and cans of Coca-Cola and McDonald’s burgers.  And China itself, wary of being alone after the downfall of USSR and its Eastern European allies, and tempted by outward forces of its modernizing economy, had to jump into the bandwagon. Western companies, led by American investors, raced their way to China to manufacture everything from slippers to ICs. This proliferated the market with too much China products and created higher demands for petroleum.

Negative implications for Sapian: First, China has drawn in foreign investments that would have otherwise been invested in the Philippines that, directly, either employ some Sapianons, or benefit Sapianon businessmen, or indirectly, bring in money into the domestic economy and trickle down to Sapian in form of taxes or increased buying power/demand for Sapian fishery products. Second, flood the Philippine market with cheaper Chinese goods, competing with our local industries - especially with GATT - losing our fledging manufacturing businesses and jobs. Third, highly industrialized China makes it more influential in geopolitics to the detriment of our security, including losing our claim to the disputed, natural gas rich 200-mile EEZ off Palawan. Fourth, China is developing backbone industries like steel, chemicals, etc., is reckless with environment and could upset South Asian environmental health (e.g., nuclear waste, industrial dust, acid rain, etc.). Fifth and most importantly, China, consuming more oil, offsets supply equilibrium, creating shortage, increasing prices, and causing more instability in volatile Middle East (e.g., giving Saddam rockets, bribing Iran with $70 billion, and possibly, some bits of nuclear technology). Increased prices slow down the Philippine economy, as it pays more power bills, lower Peso value because more dollar is paid for oil imports, less tax collections because of lowered profits, less foreign investments because of less anticipation of profits, and so on.   

On the positive side for Sapian: First, abundance of made in China products, as said earlier, makes it easier for us to buy products that used to be difficult and expensive to acquire. Second, China would attempt to expand its political and economic clout among its neighbors and invest in the Philippines, such as in agro-industry. This should be our last opportunity to dove-tail on global trade. Third, since the continued affluence of China’s economy is dependent on its goodwill, it would not do much to offset South Asia security - although the 200-mile EEZ is now irretrievably lost.

Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Third in a Continuing Series

Sapian National High School (SNHS) is perched over a ridge terminating to a hill called Garrison. We were told that there was a Japanese garrison on the hill’s summit presiding on a mile long Dalit ambush area. Strategically located, it could literally shut down Poblacion from westerly traffic. In the mid-80s, Garrison peacefully ruled over the northwest side of Poblacion. It gave a good view of Sapian Bay and beyond it, Sibuyan Sea. On a nice weather, silhouette of Sibuyan Island could be seen on a horizon that stretches to approximately 180 degrees.

For SNHS students, that was a sprawling view of the world. Exhilarating but still tangible. It should have been enough world-view for us in high school. But our economics teacher, now Professor Norma J. Flores, insisted that there’s more world to see. Our Marcos-type classrooms have corrugated steel roof riddled with holes, both from corrosion and rocks hurled by students who want to leave their mark. On a rainy day, we would joke that classes are suspended because the chalk is wet. On sunny school days, streaks of light from the holes move about the floor as the sun progressed through the day. As our teachers belabored to school us, the streaks of sunlight, slowly moving on the roughly finished pavement and through rough, dismembered chairs, have been good digression. Sometimes, they would even tell exactly how soon the next change period would be. But Miss Flores, on one warm late morning, showed us two streaks of light into world-views hitherto limited as the horizon seen from Garrison. She explained to us the concepts of geopolitics and laissez-faire. Then, she talked about agrarian reform, money velocity, inflation rate, taxation as a regulating economic mechanism, and so on. As we delve into China’s unquenchable demand for petroleum, its transformation to the league of G-8 nations, and its implications for Sapian, the economic principles that Ms. Flores taught us three decades ago are still the same.

In fairness to China, we in Sapian also benefit from its abbreviated economic transformation. It brought us cheaper goods and commodities. A decade ago, many products would have been expensive to acquire and difficult to own. But because China produces them strike-free, with depressed wages, less stringent environmental regulations, government subsidies, centrally planned production system, input distribution network, and in such very large quantities, it is now easier to acquire them in Sapian. Nike made in the U.S. could have been prohibitive than the Nike made in China today, considering that raw materials and manufacturing process are essentially the same. The lowered cost of consumer goods allowed us to enjoy conveniences we do not have today if commodities are still being manufactured in Western nations. Take the example of cheaper electronic components. Cheap ICs, memory chips and flash memories allowed manufacture of cheaper cell phones, among hundreds of electronic goods and consumer durables. My former employer, a Sunnyvale-based Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., invested billions of dollars for a wafer fab in China. A classmate in Manila who manufactures household plastic products complained that Chinese imports are killing their family company. Better quality products are being imported into the Philippines from China with less than half the price if they are made in the Philippines. In fact, their raw materials, polyethylene (PE) and polypropelene (PP), are imported from napha-crackers in China. Such that, after costs for import duties, middlemen and transport, plastic products manufactured in Manila cannot stand a chance against those from China. On the plus side, this situation benefits consumers in Sapian. But the minus on domestic industries will be taken up on a future post.

China, even with its vast capital, cheap labor, controlled industrial system, and subsidized industries, would not be where it is today without laissez-faire. Ms. Flores told us that it is French concept by an early English economist, Adam Smith, that means “produce what you want, when you want, and sell where you want, at a price you want.”

In one holistic worldview, and a little dose of contemporary history, there was a geopolitical movement soon after the downfall of the former Soviet Union to disarm China of its age-old antagonism against the West, enlist its stable and centrally-planned economy as the factory of the world, harness it cheap and educated labor force, and enter its 1.3 billion people market. After the Cold War, it was learned that when you starve an enemy nation, it gets more ruthless to its citizens and connive more against you. But if you trade more with them, laissez-faire economic forces would materially reward their participation, creating a new middle class, and hasten economic liberalization that, in the end, will democratize key socio-political institutions. A facility to do this was the decades-old General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), an economic club meant to remove trade barriers (i.e., tariffs, import taxes) among Western nations and their junior leagues. By mid-1990s, it was expanded into a new and improved GATT/World Trade Organization (GATT/WTO).

It was designed not only to counterbalance the growing influence of European Community, but also to enlist new nations, especially China. I did not have the opportunity to tell Miss Flores how her economics effortlessly replayed on my mind as I sat few paces from former presidents Cory Aquino and Fidel Ramos in Malacanang’s State Dining Room for the frequent Cabinet deliberations on GATT/WTO and petroleum deregulation.

Petropolitik, Sapian and China - Second in a Continuing Series

Everywhere we go today, we see a proliferation of products made in China; from the simplest plastic implements to some of the most complex microprocessors.

To explain China’s voracious demand for energy, lets examine its recent economic growth. Since 2000, China’s exports tripled to over $593 trillion. Government statistics report an employment rate of nearly 97%. This industrial progress over a short period of time is unprecedented in history even in the magnitude of post World War II reconstruction. A recent report indicates that of the world’s 50 worst polluted cities (i.e., most industrially active), the top 20 are in China.

China’s great industrial transformation has put so much stress on global oil supply and distribution. China, Japan, and a dozen other countries, including the Philippines, compete over limited petroleum distribution capacity in the Far East. In 2000, China’s oil consumption was about 4 million barrels everyday, and oil price then was less than $22/barrel. Today, China’s consumption has grown to over 7 million everyday - or about 1/3 of the total world oil demand. China is now the second largest oil consumer (after the U.S.), and third largest importer (after U.S. and Japan). China will add 5 million cars every year starting this year. A comparison, the Philippine oil consumption is merely 312,000 barrels per day.

Supply is increasing in arithmetical rate while demand increase in geometric proportion. Saudi Arabia is frantically pumping its wells double time to stabilize prices. But China’s growing demand and cold cash would quickly absorb the buffer supply. OPEC members, in cohort with oil cartels, seem to enjoy the world attention to volatile Middle East and ripples by Venezuela and Bolivia that even an isolated kidnapping in Nigeria would bring them billions in windfall income.

But China could not live on oil alone. It also needs food to feed its army of factory workers and emerging industrialists Since we missed economic take off many times, we may have been destined to be the food producers. In fact, we have our comparative advantages over China. One of them, their coastline is only 14,500 kilometers - we have 36,000. Reason why China permanently encroach into our 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

A few weeks ago, my former boss, Demetrio Ignacio, now Undersecretary of Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), participated in a signing ceremony for an agreement with Fuhua Agricultural Group of China. Fuhua is investing $5 billion for a food industrial park and in planting one million hectares of hybrid corn in Camarines Sur, Lanao del Norte, Isabela, Occidental Mindoro, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija. http://www.newsflash.org/2004/02/be/be003383.htm

We need more export-oriented agro-industrial projects like this. It’s the only way to offset our widening trade deficit and to brace up for the oil crisis that is yet to come. Oil situation would worsen by the day as high gas prices would cause inflation. But who knows, inflation, among other adverse economic implications like higher interest rates and minimum wages, would increase production cost in developed countries. The recourse would be to move factories to countries with cheaper labor, as long as they are not very corrupt, has political stability, uninterrupted electricity, and guarantee no labor strikes.

Petropolitik, Sapian and China

The recent upsurge in world petroleum prices brought uncertainty to the global economy and brought stark reminders of the oil crisis of the 70s. In 1981, Ms. Ligaya Ofalla-Oro gave me an oratorical piece at a Sapian National High School contest. The topic was on oil crisis. It was surreal for me; all I had was a bicycle. Sapian then, while closely entwined with global petropolitik, did not have strong demand for gasoline.

In any event, it is worth to revisit. The oil crisis three decades ago was a showdown between the cartelized Western transnational oil companies and oil producing autocracies united under the then newly formed Organization of Oil Producing Countries (OPEC). OPEC, including the former USSR, brandished its newfound power at the height of Cold War, primarily against the United States, the largest petroleum trader and consumer. The induced shortage due to lowered supply was to assert OPEC power - a purely political theme.

At that time, impact on Sapian was muted. The highway system was in sad state so very few invested on vehicles even in Poblacion. Traffic of public transport plying Bilao-Damayan-Roxas City was probably less than one every hour. As such, per capital petroleum consumption, diesel at that, had been negligible. So no one really cared much about oil prices more than whines from commuters. Capiz Electric Cooperative (CAPELCO) had only installed power transmission lines so consumers did not really have any historical sense of increasing prices. The first flicker of incandescent was enough consolation. Probably, the worst impact may have been upon fisherfolks using motorzied boats, but gas burden may have quickly dissipated in upstream pricing of their abundant catch. In fact, it was the early start of the future boom on fishery export to Iloilo and Manila. At the whole, Sapian was isolated from the petroleum crisis, so I mumbled my oil crisis piece with pure detachment from the issue.

Thirty years hence, oil crisis came back with a vengeance. This time, it is the same assertion by OPEC autocracies, but it comes with genuine economic supply-demand dimension - the enormous demand by China. In this sense, crisis has metamorphosed from a basically artificial political pressure in the ’70s to one that’s a real economic pressure to supply and demand. China is a cash economy, in fact, a debt-free, highly liquid economy, with the state having infinite power over economic fundamentals. For all practical purposes, China is able and willing to pay any cost to sustain its industrial transformation. Naturally, oil producers and traders, even with the best of their intentions, would have to give in. In short, all pipelines now lead to China.

Sapian, 30 years later, has a gas demand of its own. The improved road system has encouraged ownership of vehicles. Although impact on mobility could be cushioned off by readily available public transport network, transportation costs would have to take its toll. Power connections to the farthest households in the Municipality integrate most Sapianons to bunker fuel demand. Cost of production would markedly increase in agriculture and fisheries, including aqua culture, because practically all input are imported. Increases to our prices to offset the cost of production make our products less competitive than, say, Thailand or Vietnam. The Philippines does not have any control over oil supply and production and the government has very little macroeconomic control mechanisms (e.g., interest rates, taxes, etc.) - so much underground economy. Since buying power in Sapian can only stretch so far, the immediate observable result would be cuts in non-essentials, diminished general local demand, and reduced production, and net a economic slowdown.

Thirty years hence, Mrs. Ligaya Oro’s piece is more relevant than ever. In fact, it is a stark reminder at the onset of what could be a greater economic challenge for Sapian and the world for years to come. So, next, we will discuss more about the challenges and opportunities for Sapian in the midst of the brewing oil shortage and the industrializing China.